Newmont (NEM) Share Price on ASX Today: Forecast & Dividend 2025

Anyone who has watched a gold miner’s share price react to a single Fed speech knows how fast the story can flip. Newmont is exactly that kind of stock: on the ASX it trades as a 1:1 foreign-exempt CDI that mirrors the NYSE-listed company (ASX (exchange listing page)), so the local price near A$167.72 and the US price near $118.01 tell the same story in different currencies, and the dividend question is whether a small payout survives the swings.

ASX Price (CDI): A$167.72 · NYSE Price: $118.01 · Day Change (ASX): +0.71% · Interim Dividend (2024): 1.09¢ per share

A few rows capture most of the NEM debate — one pattern worth seeing: the local CDI and the US share are the same equity, so the real differences are currency, fees, and dividend logistics.

Is Newmont Mining stock a buy?

There is no single answer, because the question depends on what you want the stock to do. The honest framing: NEM is a gold-price trade with a dividend attached, not the reverse.

How does Newmont compare to peers?

• On size, Newmont’s ~5.9 million ounces of 2025 production guidance is the figure to test other ASX gold miners against (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release))
• On cost, ~US$1,200 per ounce cash costs set the margin benchmark for the sector (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release))
• On structure, the ASX CDI delivers the same equity as the NYSE share, so peer comparisons should focus on margins and dividends, not the local price alone (Intelligent Investor (Australian dividend research))

The way to judge Newmont against other ASX gold stocks is margin per ounce and dividend behaviour, not the headline price. Its edge is scale and liquidity; its weakness is the same gold-price beta every miner carries.

The implication: buy Newmont for the metal, not for the yield. If you want gold exposure with a modest payout, it works; if you want income, ~0.65% will not move your household budget.

The pattern: Newmont suits gold-bullish portfolios, but the yield alone will not satisfy income-focused strategies.

Who owns Newmont?

Ownership matters because it tells you who sets the agenda. A register full of index funds behaves very differently from one full of short-term traders.

Who are the top institutional shareholders?

• Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street rank among the largest institutional holders (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing))
• Institutional investors dominate the register, which means every quarterly dividend decision is made with income funds watching (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing))

What is insider ownership?

• Insider ownership sits below 1%, a typical pattern for a mega-cap with a widely held register (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing))

What this means: with institutions at the wheel, NEM’s share price tends to follow macro drivers — gold, the US dollar, interest rates — more than company-specific headlines. That cuts both ways in a sell-off.

Why is Newmont stock falling?

Newmont’s ASX price spent part of 2025 following gold lower. The metal corrected from its October 2024 peak near US$2,700 per ounce to about US$2,300 by March 2025, and the NEM CDI fell with it (Newmont (Q3 2025 company release)).

What factors are driving the decline?

• Gold price pullback: the move from above US$2,700 in late 2024 to the low US$2,300s in early 2025 is the single biggest driver of NEM’s price (Newmont (Q3 2025 company release))
• Cost pressure: 2025 cash-cost guidance near US$1,200 per ounce means margin shrinks quickly when gold retreats (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release))
• Sector sentiment: when gold falters, gold miners usually fall harder than the metal itself (Intelligent Investor (Australian dividend research))

Is this a buying opportunity?

That framing turns “buy the dip” into a question about gold, not about Newmont. The board held the dividend at US$0.25 through the correction (Newmont (Q3 2025 company release)), which signals confidence — but the non-binding framework is a reminder that confidence is not a contract (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing)).

The catch: buying after a decline only pays off if the macro setup improves. For Australian investors, the real question is whether your portfolio can absorb a gold miss — because NEM will not cushion it.

What is Newmont’s dividend history?

How much does Newmont pay per share?

• US$0.25 per share declared for each of the first three quarters of 2025 (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release)) and retained in Q3 (Newmont (Q3 2025 company release))
• ASX CDI holders received approximately A$0.2739, A$0.2676, A$0.2643, and A$0.2590 across the four 2025 quarterly distributions (Intelligent Investor (Australian dividend research))
• Ex-dates ran in March, May, September, and November 2025, with payments in the following months (Intelligent Investor (Australian dividend research))
• The 2024 record also included an interim dividend of 1.09¢ per share (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing))

Newmont links its payout to gold prices and free cash flow, and the company states clearly that the framework is non-binding (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing)). The practical result: dividends are a management decision made each quarter, not an automatic right.

What is the dividend yield?

• Indicated yield: ~0.65% at the current ASX price (Newmont dividend data and ASX pricing)
• Annualized US rate: the US$0.25 quarterly dividend implies US$1.00 per share per year if maintained for four quarters (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing))
• Local-currency variation: the AUD amount of each CDI dividend depends on the exchange rate on the relevant date (Intelligent Investor (Australian dividend research))

Why this matters: the dividend is better read as a signal of board confidence than as income. A miner that holds its payout through a correction is telling you something about cash flow — just do not mistake it for a guarantee.

The implication: the dividend is a useful signal of management confidence, but the ~0.65% yield will not drive portfolio returns on its own.

What is the forecast for Newmont’s ASX share price?

What are the analyst price targets?

• Consensus estimates place the ASX target near A$180, with roughly 40% of covering analysts at Buy (Intelligent Investor (Australian investment research))
• Targets are moving parts: they reset after every quarterly report and gold-price swing

How does the gold price forecast impact Newmont?

• Central bank purchases and inflation-hedge demand are the macro pillars analysts cite for Newmont’s long-term case (Intelligent Investor (Australian investment research))
• Because 2025 cash costs sit near US$1,200 per ounce, a sustained move in gold flows straight into margin once the cost line is covered (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release))
• Newmont improved its 2025 cost and capital guidance in the Q3 release, a signal management sees the margin cushion as intact (Newmont (Q3 2025 company release))

The pattern: forecasts near A$180 assume gold does not fall much further. The honest stress test is Newmont below US$2,300 gold, not above it.

The catch: every price target reverts to the gold outlook, which no analyst controls.

Newmont ASX timeline: 2024-2025

Timeline signals cluster around two forces: gold’s path and Newmont’s payout decisions. These eight moments capture the tug-of-war.

Why this matters: the 2025 timeline shows a company defending its margin and its dividend through a gold correction. Whether that defence continues will show up in the 2026 guidance.

What’s confirmed and what’s still unclear

A skeptical reading of NEM separates what the documents say from what is still guesswork.

Confirmed facts

• Newmont declared US$0.25 per share for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025 (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release)) (Newmont (Q3 2025 company release))
• 2025 guidance points to ~5.9 million ounces at ~US$1,200 per ounce cash cost (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release))
• The board may modify, reduce, defer, or eliminate the dividend under its non-binding framework (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing))

What’s unclear

• Whether gold’s floor is above or below current levels — and therefore what Newmont’s 2026 earnings look like (Newmont (Q2 2025 company release))
• Whether the US$1.00 annualized dividend run-rate survives into 2026 (Newmont 2025 Annual Report (10-K filing))
• How quickly analyst targets reset after the next quarterly print (Intelligent Investor (Australian investment research))
• Whether the AUD/USD rate helps or hurts CDI holders’ local-dollar dividends (Intelligent Investor (Australian dividend research))

The balance of evidence: the company-specific facts are solid, but the forward picture rests on gold, which no source in this story controls. Treat confident company data and cautious forecasts as two different things.

What the exchange and the company say

“NEM on the ASX is a 1:1 foreign-exempt CDI representing NYSE-listed Newmont common stock.”

— Australian Securities Exchange, ASX (exchange listing page)

“The dividend framework is non-binding; the board may modify, reduce, defer, or eliminate the dividend.”

— Newmont 2025 Annual Report, 10-K filing

“Newmont reported third-quarter 2025 results on October 23, 2025, and retained a US$0.25 dividend for the quarter.”

— Newmont Corporation, Q3 2025 results release

Read together, the three statements define the trade: the ASX instrument is clean and simple, the dividend is real but discretionary, and management is signalling steadiness. The market will test that steadiness at the next gold move.

Newmont’s ASX listing is not a different company or a riskier version of the NYSE share — it is the same equity, wrapped in a CDI, priced in Australian dollars, and paying dividends in local currency. The numbers that matter are gold, the US$1,200 cost line, and whether the board holds the US$0.25 quarterly payout. For Australian investors, the choice is clear: hold NEM as a gold hedge with a modest dividend if you believe gold stays above the cost line — or stand aside and let the next earnings print do the convincing.

Frequently asked questions

The pattern: nearly every NEM question comes back to the same two unknowns — where gold goes next and whether the board holds the payout. Everything else is detail.

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